Makerfield by-election Winner

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing Andy Burnham at 66% to win the Makerfield by-election, with the contract settled in USDC on Polygon via conditional tokens if and when the result is confirmed. For users, that means the market is not about polling averages in the abstract, but about the eventual official winner of a 2026 contest triggered by Josh Simons’ resignation, with any late uncertainty pushing resolution to “Other” only if definitive results are still unavailable by year-end.

A 66% quote implies a clear lead, but not a lock. Comparable UK by-election markets often move sharply once candidate lists are final and turnout expectations become clearer, particularly when a high-profile contender is involved. Burnham’s name recognition appears to be doing most of the work here, yet that also leaves the contract sensitive to any sign of a split progressive vote, a stronger-than-expected Reform challenge, or an unexpected local campaign shift. Lines currently has Burnham ahead on 57.5% against Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon at 39%, while Polymarket’s separate margin market shows a fairly spread-out distribution, with 3–6% and 9%+ both sitting at 19%, suggesting traders see scope for a range of winning margins rather than a foregone conclusion.

The main catalysts are procedural rather than abstract: the formal writ, the date of polling, the final candidate slate, and any local or national polling updates that change expectations of turnout and vote transfer. A recent Crypto Briefing report said Burnham had entered the contest and put his chance of winning at 66% YES, which is consistent with the current market price. For Polymarket users, the key mechanic is simple: the contract settles to the named winner only if credible reporting and, where needed, official Wigan results make the outcome unambiguous; if not, the fallback is Other.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.