Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **66% YES**, which means traders on Polygon are implying a better-than-even chance that Israel and Hamas publicly announce a mutual agreement on phase two before the 31 December 2026 settlement deadline. The on-chain mechanics matter here: positions are settled in USDC through conditional tokens, so the market will only pay out if there is a qualifying official agreement, not merely continued talks or a unilateral statement.

The current price sits in the middle of a long sequence of ceasefire implementation risk. Phase one was announced in October 2025 and brought a halt in fighting, a limited Israeli pullback to the Yellow Line, hostage and prisoner exchanges, and expanded aid access, but the second phase has been much harder because it is tied to issues such as full withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and Gaza’s post-war governance.[1][2][4] Comparable ceasefire markets should be read with caution: earlier Gaza truce frameworks also saw stage-two talks slip beyond their intended start date, with phase-one terms fulfilled first and the harder political/security questions deferred or stalled.[4][5][7]

For traders, the key catalysts are official US, Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli announcements, plus any date set for direct talks or a leaders’ meeting that could force a written draft into the public domain.[1][6][12] News flow around hostages, remaining prisoner swaps, border access, and whether a technocratic Gaza administration or international security force is being accepted will likely move the contract most, because those are the practical dependencies for a phase-two accord.[2][3][17] In a market like this, a confirmed joint statement is far more important than optimistic rhetoric: conditional tokens will only resolve on a publicly announced mutual agreement, so traders tend to discount vague diplomacy until the wording is nailed down.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.