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Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?

Comparison of odds and platforms for "Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?" — sourced live from the Polymarket order book, curated by Kalshi UK.

10% YES 90% NO Volume: $54.7M Liquidity: $1.8M Closes: 31 Dec 2026
Trade on Kalshi UK →
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Kalshi UK Pick
polygram.ink
 10% 90% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Open on Kalshi UK →
Polymarket
polymarket.com
 10% 90% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Open on Kalshi UK →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Open on Kalshi UK →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Open on Kalshi UK →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Open on Kalshi UK →

Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Kalshi UK.

Active sub-markets

December 3110% YES91% NO
March 310% YES100% NO
April 300% YES100% NO
June 301% YES99% NO
September 304% YES96% NO
May 310% YES100% NO

Market context

The Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027? prediction market currently prices this outcome at 10% YES. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
Is this market available outside the US?
Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?
Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

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