Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market assigns almost no chance that the named person will attend a US-Iran diplomatic meeting before settlement on 30 June 2026. On Polymarket, that price reflects traders locking USDC on Polygon into conditional tokens, so the quote is less about rhetoric than about whether a qualifying meeting is actually scheduled, and whether the listed attendee is on the room sheet.

That near-zero price is easiest to read against a year of stop-start diplomacy. Reuters reported in April that Iran said no date had been set for the next round of negotiations, after earlier high-level discussions ended without agreement[4]. More recently, Polymarket itself has pointed to renewed momentum, including references to mediated engagement through Pakistan and Oman and a memorandum of understanding to launch another formal round[2][3]. That combination usually keeps these markets volatile until a venue, date, and participant list are all nailed down, because indirect contacts or mediator-led discussions do not count under the market rules.

For a trader, the key catalysts are official scheduling statements, venue announcements, and any confirmation from the US State Department, Iran’s foreign ministry, or the mediators doing the shuttling. The most relevant recent signal in the news flow was Omani confirmation in February that the next US-Iran talks would be in Geneva, which shows how quickly these sessions can move once intermediaries align[1]. The practical watchlist is simple: a named delegate, an agenda tied to sanctions or nuclear issues, and a meeting that is explicitly direct enough to qualify; without that, a 0% quote can persist even if diplomacy is active behind the scenes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Who will attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.