Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would need to resign, be removed through impeachment and conviction, or otherwise cease holding the presidency before 30 June 2026 for this market to resolve Yes. The Polymarket contract, trading on Polygon via USDC, currently prices this outcome at 0%, reflecting trader consensus that no such event will occur within the settlement window. The resolution criteria specify permanent removal only; temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment would not qualify. An announcement of resignation or removal before the deadline triggers immediate Yes resolution, regardless of the actual effective date.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance. Richard Nixon resigned in August 1974 amid impeachment proceedings, but faced circumstances—a House Judiciary Committee vote recommending impeachment and clear Senate conviction prospects—absent today. Andrew Johnson survived impeachment by a single Senate vote in 1868. No sitting president has been removed via the 25th Amendment. The current political environment, with Republicans controlling both chambers of Congress, makes conviction through impeachment extraordinarily unlikely. Markets have consistently priced presidential removal at near-zero probability during periods of unified government control.

Traders monitoring this contract should track congressional dynamics, particularly any shift in Republican support for Trump, though such movement appears minimal as of late 2024. Health-related developments would constitute a material catalyst, given Trump's age and the 25th Amendment's Section 3 provisions for voluntary transfer of power. Legal proceedings—including sentencing outcomes in New York and potential appeals—could theoretically create political pressure, though conviction and removal remain structurally improbable under current legislative composition. The settlement window extends through mid-2026, encompassing Trump's second-year presidency.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.