Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to take weeks to normalise following the recent deal to reopen it, with industry experts warning that a backlog of vessels will persist even as the vital shipping lane prepares to operate freely[1]. The market currently prices this contract at 50% YES on Polymarket, reflecting the on-chain uncertainty embedded in conditional tokens settled in USDC on the Polygon network, where traders are betting on whether IMF Portwatch will record a 7-day moving average of arrivals hitting 60 before July 31, 2026.

Historical precedents from the 2026 crisis show that while the strait was declared open in mid-April, commercial traffic failed to return to pre-war levels immediately due to unresolved mine-sweeping operations and security certifications[3]. Kpler estimates that 118 tankers are currently stranded in the Persian Gulf, with the backlog potentially taking 10 to 15 days to resolve, though analysts caution this initial spike would be purely mechanical rather than a sign of full throughput recovery[1]. A gradual restart involving traffic management systems with Iran and Oman is the most probable scenario, meaning an immediate return to over 100 daily transits is unlikely[1].

Traders must monitor the naval forces' certification of safe transit routes, a process anticipated to take several days, and whether vessels require prior authorisation or face service fees from Iran[1]. The recent memorandum of understanding between President Trump and President Mas Pezeshkian guarantees toll-free reopening for 60 days, yet market analysts indicate restoring physical supply to stabilise oil prices below $80 per barrel may require weeks or months[1]. Priority access for oil tankers and LNG carriers could further delay container shipments, creating a dependency on how quickly naval escorts and mine-clearance protocols are accepted by foreign operators[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.