Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, with commercial shipping suspended following a brief reopening and near-zero daily transits compared to the normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels. This stark reality underpins the current 82% YES probability on Polymarket, where traders are pricing in a rapid resolution to the Iran conflict and the immediate lifting of the US naval blockade by the stipulated 19 July deadline.

Historical precedents frame this high probability cautiously; even after the April ceasefire, traffic hovered below 10% of normal volumes, and a recent US-Israeli attack in February triggered immediate Iranian tolls and vessel assaults that shut the route entirely. The 60-vessel threshold represents a significant recovery from the current average of roughly 27 daily calls, yet the June 17 agreement guarantees immediate commercial navigation commencement, suggesting the market is betting on swift enforcement rather than gradual recovery.

Traders must monitor the 19 July deadline for the US blockade lift and Iran’s subsequent "best efforts" to restore pre-war traffic levels within the same timeframe, as delays here could invalidate the YES outcome. The recent Reuters report highlighting Iran’s plan to demand cryptocurrency tolls during ceasefires adds a critical dependency, as any re-imposition of fees could stall the 7-day moving average required for resolution. With the settlement window ending in December 2026, the on-chain conditional tokens on Polygon are pricing the likelihood that geopolitical pressure will force a full reopening before the year concludes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.