Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing **60% YES** on this contract, which means traders currently lean towards IMF PortWatch publishing a 7-day moving average of **60 or more transit calls** in the Strait of Hormuz before year-end. The market is resolved entirely by that published PortWatch series, and the event is settled on-chain through Polymarket’s usual USDC, Polygon and conditional-token structure rather than by any discretionary judgement.[1][10]

That pricing sits against a still-fragile shipping backdrop. Reuters reported in April that transit through Hormuz was running at less than 10% of normal, with only seven vessels through in 24 hours versus roughly 140 in ordinary conditions.[8] More recent coverage in June said flows had picked up after a ceasefire and reopening steps, but remained well below pre-war levels, while IMF PortWatch-based trackers and Reuters updates still described traffic as only a small fraction of normal and vulnerable to renewed disruption.[13][16][17] The market’s threshold matters: it is not enough for the strait to reopen politically; PortWatch must show the 7-day average back at or above 60.

For a Polymarket user, the main catalysts are the sort of announcements that change commercial routing quickly: ceasefire durability, any fresh U.S.-Iran talks, Iranian naval or shipping directives, and changes in war-risk insurance or convoy practice that alter whether operators resume transits in volume.[13][14][16] A recent CNBC report said traders were already treating year-end normalisation as the base case only just over half the time, with Polymarket itself slightly more optimistic than Kalshi on the same definition of “normal”.[1] With a settlement window running to 31 December 2026, the key watchpoint is whether backlogs clear and daily commercial sailings stay high enough for the published moving average to cross the line, rather than whether headlines simply imply improved access.[1][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.