Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **7% YES** today, implying traders think a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits reaching **60 or more** before the end of August remains a low-probability outcome. On-chain, that exposure is expressed in **USDC** on **Polygon** through conditional tokens, so the market is effectively a live vote on whether IMF Portwatch’s moving average will print back at peacetime-like levels.

The historical read-through is not encouraging for bulls. Reuters reported the strait was running at well below 10% of normal volumes in early April, with traffic averaging only about seven vessels a day in late April, versus roughly 125 to 140 before the conflict.[2][3] Even after the June reopening framework, traffic was described as only roughly half of peacetime levels, and CNBC quoted shipping executives saying a return to normal could take “weeks, if not months”.[6][9] A brief June uptick did not settle the question either: Reuters said overall sailings hit 62 on 24 June, but also noted traffic “has not yet normalized fully”.[10]

For traders, the key catalysts are maritime security developments, any new U.S.-Iran messaging, and whether shipping lines restore scheduled transits rather than making ad hoc crossings. Reuters reported renewed strikes and vessel attacks in mid-July pushed transits to a two-month low, with just three commodity vessels crossing on 17 July.[15][16] The market will also hinge on the exact IMF Portwatch 7-day average, so a single burst of crossings is not enough unless it lifts the moving average above 60 and stays there; that makes weekly schedule changes, convoy arrangements, mine-clearing progress, and carrier risk assessments more important than headline announcements alone.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.