Elon Musk # tweets May 11 - May 13, 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market prices zero probability that Elon Musk will post on X between 12:00 PM ET on 11 May and 12:00 PM ET on 13 May 2026. This 48-hour window captures a Monday-to-Wednesday span with no obvious public events anchoring Musk's attention. The settlement mechanism tracks main feed posts, quote posts and reposts via automated monitoring, excluding replies unless they appear on the main feed timeline. On Polymarket, this contract trades as a conditional token pair on Polygon, with YES and NO positions denominated in USDC.

Musk's posting frequency has historically varied considerably depending on operational demands and external events. In comparable two-day windows without major Tesla earnings calls, product launches or regulatory developments, his post counts have ranged from zero to fifteen. The 0% crowd probability reflects either genuine conviction that Musk will be offline during this specific period, or a liquidity gap where no trader has staked capital on a YES position. His posting patterns show marked sensitivity to news cycles: during periods of regulatory scrutiny or company crises, his activity spikes; during quieter operational phases, days can pass with minimal engagement.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Tesla's quarterly earnings calendar, any scheduled shareholder meetings, and announcements from his other ventures including xAI and Neuralink. Mid-May 2026 carries no publicly scheduled major events as of current knowledge, though unforeseen developments—regulatory actions, market movements or product announcements—could trigger heightened activity. His recent posting behaviour on X remains the most reliable historical baseline for estimating activity during unscheduled windows.

Methodology

This page reviews Elon Musk # tweets May 11 - May 13, 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.