Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tiger Woods has no known federal criminal convictions that would make him eligible for a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve. The golfer's 2017 arrest in Florida on a DUI charge resulted in a plea to reckless driving, a state-level misdemeanour that falls outside federal jurisdiction. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 2% YES, reflecting the extremely narrow pathway for such an action to occur. On-chain, traders are holding conditional YES tokens at roughly 50:1 odds against, with liquidity concentrated around the 0.02 USDC mark on Polygon.

Historical precedent suggests presidential pardons target individuals with federal convictions or those whose cases carry political salience. Donald Trump's first term (2017–2021) saw him pardon 143 individuals, predominantly those with white-collar federal crimes, associates facing legal jeopardy, and figures with media prominence. Woods does not fit these categories. The only conceivable catalyst would be an unforeseen federal indictment between now and mid-2026, followed by Trump choosing to pardon him—a sequence with negligible probability given Woods's current legal standing and the absence of any reported federal investigation.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch for any announcement of federal charges against Woods, though none appear imminent as of late 2024. The settlement window extends through 30 June 2026, covering the latter half of Trump's second term. Without a federal conviction or pending federal case, the market's 2% pricing reflects rational scepticism about the underlying event materialising within the timeframe.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.