GPT-6 released by…?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket prices this contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is assigning no live probability to OpenAI making a publicly accessible GPT-6 release before the settlement deadline. On Polymarket, traders hold **USDC** on **Polygon**, and the market resolves through the platform’s conditional-token mechanism, so the key practical question is not whether OpenAI is working on the model internally, but whether a product explicitly called GPT-6 is launched for general public access in time.

The recent pattern around OpenAI releases is a useful guide to how this could still move late in the year. A comparable case is the April 2026 launch of **GPT-5.5**, which had been widely discussed beforehand but arrived under a different label, showing that naming and packaging can matter as much as the underlying model work. That matters here because several third-party trackers note that the expected successor has not been publicly confirmed as GPT-6, and OpenAI previously said it would not ship in 2025; one post-launch write-up described the “Spud” model as having shipped as GPT-5.5 instead.[1][12][16][18]

For traders, the main catalysts are explicit OpenAI announcements, a published model-release note, or a public waitlist/open beta that uses the **GPT-6** name, since closed testing would not count under this market’s rules.[11][16] The most relevant watchpoints are any new launch event, API changelog, or ChatGPT product update, because even a late-2026 rollout would only resolve YES if it is clearly public by 31 December 2025 under the market’s wording — a standard that now looks impossible unless the market text is stale relative to the calendar and the contract has already effectively become a NO path on timing alone.[11][16][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.