Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this contract at **8% YES** right now, so the market is treating a qualifying warship transit by one of the listed countries as a low-probability outcome. On-chain, that view is expressed through USDC-backed conditional tokens on Polygon, so the price reflects traders’ latest read on whether a national government, military statement, or credible reporting will confirm a transit through the Strait of Hormuz before the August deadline.

The historical context is a mix of precedent and near-misses. Reuters reported in March that President Trump urged countries including China, France, Japan, South Korea and the UK to send warships, but also noted that no commitments had been made at the time[5][9]. Later reporting suggested Britain had already sent a Royal Navy destroyer and France had positioned forces nearby, while a May account said the UK deployed a warship to an international defensive mission aimed at protecting shipping[1][4]. Earlier market history on Polymarket also points to a split between rhetoric and execution: a related Hormuz market resolved “No” even as the US Navy and UK warships were active in the area[17].

For traders, the main catalysts are official deployment announcements, escort schedules, and any verified transits by navies already present in theatre. Recent Reuters and Euronews reporting shows the strait remains politically sensitive, with renewed Iranian warnings over route changes and continued pressure on maritime security arrangements[18][12]. That matters because this market only resolves on a confirmed transit through the strait, not on general regional presence, so the key question is whether any country’s warship actually passes through before 31 August rather than simply being stationed nearby[14].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.