Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz is currently closed, with commercial shipping suspended and daily transit calls near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 ships per day. This strategic chokepoint, carrying approximately 21% of the world’s oil supply, has seen traffic drop by over 95% since the Iran war began, leaving more than 150 vessels stranded and forcing reroutes via the Cape of Good Hope[1][3].

Historical precedents frame the current 20% YES probability as a reflection of extreme volatility rather than steady recovery. While a brief reopening on 21 April 2026 saw 25 commercial vessels cross—more than triple the daily average since March—traffic collapsed again within 24 hours, confirming that isolated surges do not guarantee sustained normality[2][3]. The pre-war average of 108 crossings daily contrasts starkly with the current 22, suggesting that reaching the 60-ship threshold requires a fundamental shift in regional security rather than temporary diplomatic pauses[9].

Traders must monitor announcements regarding a peace deal between Washington and Tehran, as shipping executives explicitly await such confidence to restore safe passage[1]. Recent data from late June shows a 7-day moving average of only 32.57, far below the required 60, indicating that without a formal cessation of hostilities, the settlement window will likely resolve to No[6]. War risk insurance premiums remain over 16 times normal rates, and any escalation, such as the recent strikes on Iranian military sites, will further delay recovery[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.