How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after a months-long blockade, but traffic remains volatile following missile attacks on commercial vessels earlier this week. The prediction market on Polymarket prices an 82% chance that the total number of transits recorded by IMF Portwatch between 6 and 12 July 2026 will meet the settlement threshold, with contracts trading in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens.

Historical data from the recent resumption of shipping shows daily crossings fluctuating between 30 and 70 vessels, with Kpler reporting 108 verified crossings over the weekend of 3–5 July, including 43 on 3 July, 34 on 4 July, and 31 on 5 July [3]. This resilience contrasts sharply with the near-total blockage that persisted from February until late March 2026, when Iran closed the strait to allies of the US and Israel following air strikes [6]. The current 82% probability reflects confidence that the post-memorandum recovery trend will hold, though the uneven nature of traffic—evident in June’s 29 crossings over five days—introduces uncertainty [1].

Traders should monitor announcements from the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) regarding further projectile strikes, as the fire on an Omani tanker on 6 July demonstrates ongoing security risks [3]. The settlement depends entirely on IMF Portwatch’s finalized daily data, which becomes available only once the next day’s point is recorded, creating a lag in resolution. Any escalation in IRGC activity or new mine-laying incidents could abruptly reduce transit calls, while continued diplomatic stability between the US and Iran supports the current bullish crowd sentiment [8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.