Bitcoin above 2026 on June 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is effectively pricing this BTC/USDT noon ET Binance candle as a near-certain **Yes**, even though settlement depends on a single one-minute close on Binance rather than Bitcoin’s broader spot market. On-chain, traders are holding or buying conditional tokens settled in **USDC** on **Polygon**, so the relevant question is not where BTC trades generally, but whether the Binance 1m candle at 12:00 ET on 22 June finishes above the strike level in the market title.[1][2]

A **100% implied probability** leaves almost no room for a miss, which usually means the contract is trading at or extremely close to the maximum tick. In practice, that kind of pricing is less about forecasting direction and more about the market treating the outcome as already locked in unless there is a sharp, last-minute move. Binance BTC/USDT was around **$64,082** on its spot page, but the settlement will hinge only on the specific candle close used by Binance’s charting data.[1][2][3]

For a trader, the main catalysts are timing and venue-specific volatility: the exact noon ET candle, any weekend liquidity thinning, and any sudden crypto-driven headlines before the Monday settlement window closes. Bitcoin remains sensitive to macro headlines, regulatory updates, and broad risk sentiment, but here the practical dependency is tighter: only the Binance BTC/USDT minute candle counts, so moves on other exchanges matter only insofar as they spill into Binance’s order book.[1][2][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.