# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this market at 0% YES today, with conditional tokens on Polygon implying the crowd sees no realistic path to a Week 1 view count above the relevant bracket for MrBeast’s next long-form upload. Because settlement is tied to the first seven days of the next announced video, the contract is really a bet on one specific release cadence and one specific seven-day views window, not on MrBeast’s broader channel performance.

The comparison set is awkward for a week-one market because MrBeast videos often front-load heavily in the first 24 hours, then slow meaningfully by day 7. Recent market references point to day-1 totals in the 30–35 million area, with Lines noting that his last video “cleared this range”, which helps explain why traders have been attentive to how far beyond the first day his releases can carry. The key question for week one is whether a strong opening can sustain enough recommendation flow, repeat viewing and international traction to push the seven-day total into a higher bracket than usual.

The main catalysts are simple: whether MrBeast posts the next video within the market’s settlement window, what the thumbnail and title imply about mass appeal, and whether the upload lands alongside other major platform events that can crowd out recommendations. Traders should watch his channel itself for the upload, plus any creator-side announcements about filming or release timing. On-chain, the market only changes hands via USDC, so the live price is the cleanest read of how participants are weighting the odds of a breakout week versus a more routine MrBeast opening.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.