Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day beat Avengers: Endgame's opening weekend record?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this **USDC-on-Polygon** contract at **59% YES**, which means the market is already leaning towards **Spider-Man: Brand New Day** finishing above the **$357,115,007** domestic opening-weekend mark that resolves the bet. In plain box-office terms, that is a very high bar: the film would need to convert its strong first-day momentum into a three-day total above the record set by **Avengers: Endgame**. Because settlement uses **The Numbers** daily box office tab and final three-day figures, traders are really betting on the verified domestic weekend gross, not studio estimates or headline tracking.

The historical comparison is straightforward but demanding. **Endgame** remains the benchmark at about **$357 million** domestic opening weekend, while **Spider-Man: No Way Home** is the closest recent comic-book comp at **$260.1 million** domestically, well short of the target.[6][11] Early reports for **Brand New Day** point to unusually heavy demand: Variety said it grossed **$168 million** on Friday alone from 4,487 North American theatres, and CNBC reported a **$72 million** preview haul with a projected **$270 million** domestic debut, both suggesting a very strong start but still leaving the weekend total dependent on Saturday and Sunday hold.[1][5]

For traders, the key catalysts are the final Saturday/Sunday play, any late revisions to industry estimates, and whether the film sustains its pace without an IMAX advantage, which several reports noted was absent at launch.[10] The contract should remain sensitive to same-day box-office updates and to how quickly **The Numbers** converts estimates into final figures, since the market resolves only once the three-day opening weekend is no longer a studio estimate. If the verified weekend lands anywhere near the higher end of the published tracking range, the YES side strengthens materially; if the usual Sunday drop is steeper than expected, the current price may prove rich.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.