"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Scary Movie franchise revival lands in cinemas on 5 June 2026, with opening weekend domestic box office performance to be measured across the 5–7 June window using final figures from The Numbers. Polymarket currently prices YES at 0%, reflecting either extreme scepticism about the film's commercial viability or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price. The conditional token structure on Polygon means traders are effectively betting USDC against discrete box office brackets, with settlement tied to published data rather than studio estimates—a mechanism that removes estimation risk once final weekend figures arrive.

Comparable horror-comedy reboots offer limited precedent for franchise revivals after extended dormancy. The original Scary Movie (2000) opened to $42.3 million domestically; its 2003 sequel Scary Movie 3 grossed $42.8 million opening weekend. However, the franchise's last entry, Scary Movie 5 (2013), opened to just $15.1 million amid franchise fatigue and critical collapse. Recent horror reboots show volatility: Scream (2022) opened to $30.7 million, whilst Insidious: The Red Door (2023) managed $36.2 million. The 13-year gap since the last instalment creates genuine uncertainty about audience appetite.

Release timing places the film in early June, a traditionally softer corridor before summer tentpole season. Marketing spend and critical reception—expected in May—will be the primary catalysts shaping final weekend performance. Competing releases and whether studios position this as a genuine franchise continuation versus a standalone parody will influence ticket allocation. The 0% probability likely reflects thin trading rather than consensus dismissal, leaving room for significant repricing once promotional materials surface.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.