Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran's nationwide internet blackout, which commenced on 28 February 2026 during active military engagement with the United States and Israel, presents a binary outcome: either connectivity is restored by 30 April 2026, or the market resolves to "No". Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting trader conviction that restoration within the 61-day window is implausible. The conditional token structure on Polygon means positions are settled in USDC against a binary outcome—either credible international reporting confirms broad, unambiguous internet restoration, or it does not.

Historical precedent suggests extended blackouts during regional conflict are difficult to reverse quickly. Syria's 2011–2015 internet disruptions lasted months; Myanmar's 2021 shutdown persisted for over a year despite international pressure. However, Iran's 2019 blackout lasted approximately one week, demonstrating that even during acute tensions, restoration can occur within weeks rather than months. The critical distinction here is the scale of current military engagement, which may prolong infrastructure damage or government-imposed restrictions beyond typical timelines.

Traders should monitor announcements from Iran's Ministry of Communications regarding infrastructure repairs, ceasefire negotiations between the three parties, and statements from international bodies like the UN or ICANN. Reuters and AP reporting on damage assessments to Iran's internet backbone will signal whether physical restoration is technically feasible. Any diplomatic breakthrough or military de-escalation would be the primary catalyst shifting probabilities; absent such developments, the 0% pricing reflects rational scepticism about restoration within two months of an ongoing conflict scenario.

Methodology

We track Internet Access restored in Iran by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.