Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Russia’s ability to capture any part of a specified Ukrainian city by the end of 2026 is the real-world event underpinning this contract, with the market currently pricing a 22% chance of success. On Polymarket, traders are buying and selling USDC-denominated conditional tokens on the Polygon network, where the 22% implied probability reflects scepticism about Moscow’s operational momentum despite nearly five years of war.

Historical patterns from the 2024–2025 offensives show that Russian advances have slowed dramatically; in June 2026, forces advanced just 1.03 square kilometres per day, a fraction of the 16.65 km²/day rate seen in August 2025 [4]. ISW assesses that Ukraine has largely halted the Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russian gains in May 2026 covering only a fraction of the territory secured in May 2025 [1]. Given that Russia still needs roughly 5,305 km² to seize the remainder of Donetsk Oblast and is deemed highly unlikely to achieve this by December 2026, the 22% probability aligns with a grinding, low-momentum conflict rather than a breakthrough scenario [4].

Traders should monitor daily ISW map updates for any new shading indicating Russian control, as persistence through the next full update cycle is required for settlement [4]. Key catalysts include Ukraine’s intensified intermediate-range strike campaign degrading Russian logistics from Rostov to Crimea, which has contributed to plummeting advance rates [5]. Additionally, watch for Russian casualty trends—monthly losses reportedly outpacing recruitment since December 2025—as well as any announcements of fresh offensives or shifts in artillery and drone volumes, such as the 420-drone strikes recorded in February 2026 [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.