Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket’s current pricing has **Spider-Man: Brand New Day** as the clear front-runner, with trader consensus built around a late-July release, a strong summer corridor, and the franchise’s established box-office ceiling; the contract itself settles on the film with the highest **2026 domestic calendar gross**, using the Box Office Mojo “Gross” column and counting only receipts earned during 2026.[18] On the on-chain side, this is a standard USDC market on Polygon, so the price is the market’s live view of how those conditional tokens should resolve against that year-end ranking rather than a forecast of worldwide revenue.[18]

The current 0% YES price is notable because it implies the market is effectively treating the outcome as unavailable or mispriced relative to the listed contenders, even though historical comparison points suggest the race is usually decided by a small group of franchise releases rather than by long-shot titles. Polymarket’s own market page names Spider-Man, Toy Story 5, Avengers: Doomsday, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie and The Odyssey as the main candidates, which is consistent with prior box-office forecasting chatter around the same IP-heavy slate.[18] Box Office Mojo’s 2026 worldwide chart already shows The Super Mario Galaxy Movie over $1.0 billion globally, but that does not determine this market, which is strictly domestic and year-bounded.[19]

For traders, the main catalysts are release-date changes, trailer response, and whether late-year tentpoles can hold screens long enough to build domestic totals through December. Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s July 31 slot gives it the longest runway, while Avengers: Doomsday’s December 18 timing makes it more dependent on exceptional opening strength and holiday legs.[18] Any studio schedule shuffle, a rival breakout, or a sharper-than-expected domestic run for a family title could materially change the ranking before the settlement cut-off, and the contract will ultimately be judged against Box Office Mojo’s final 2026 domestic numbers.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.