Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world's most heavily monitored maritime chokepoints, with roughly one-fifth of global oil traffic passing through its 21-nautical-mile width. Polymarket currently prices the prospect of warship transits through the strait by end-July 2026 at 4% YES, implying traders assess such passages as unlikely within the next eighteen months. The contract settles on confirmed military vessel movement—defined to include combat ships, frigates, destroyers, and support vessels—rather than commercial traffic or civilian craft.

Historical precedent suggests the low probability reflects genuine rarity rather than impossibility. The US Navy conducts Freedom of Navigation operations through the strait roughly annually, whilst allied navies including British and French vessels have transited during periods of heightened regional tension. However, such passages typically occur in response to specific geopolitical flashpoints: Iranian nuclear negotiations, Houthi attacks on shipping, or direct military confrontation. The 2019–2020 period saw elevated transits following the Soleimani assassination and subsequent escalations, but routine peacetime passages remain infrequent enough that markets price them as tail events.

Traders monitoring this contract should track announcements from the US Fifth Fleet, statements from Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps regarding strait access, and any escalation in Red Sea shipping disruptions that might prompt naval responses. Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels have not yet triggered major-power warship deployments specifically through the strait, though sustained attacks could alter calculus. Scheduled UN negotiations or sanctions reviews affecting Iran would also merit attention as potential catalysts for either increased naval presence or diplomatic de-escalation.

Methodology

We track Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.