What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket's conditional tokens on Polygon are pricing a 35% probability that the Trump administration will accept Iran's continued uranium enrichment by end of May 2026. The market hinges on whether any bilateral or multilateral agreement—whether a formal treaty, executive understanding, or tacit arrangement—constitutes US acceptance of Iran's right to enrich uranium going forward, even if subject to caps, inspections, or time-bound conditions.

Historical precedent suggests the bar for this outcome remains high. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) of 2015 permitted Iran to enrich uranium under strict International Atomic Energy Agency monitoring, yet the Trump administration withdrew unilaterally in 2018, reimposing maximum pressure sanctions. Subsequent negotiations under Biden achieved no breakthrough despite multiple rounds in Vienna and Doha. The current administration's stated position on Iran has historically favoured containment over negotiated limits on enrichment capacity. Comparable cases—such as the North Korea denuclearisation talks of 2018–19, which collapsed despite initial engagement—illustrate how quickly diplomatic openings can close when domestic political constraints tighten.

Near-term catalysts centre on whether Trump pursues direct talks with Tehran, a shift signalled by any appointment of a special envoy or public statements softening preconditions. The IAEA's quarterly reports on Iranian enrichment levels, due in February and May 2026, will frame technical baselines for any negotiation. Regional escalation—Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, or Iranian retaliation—could either force diplomatic urgency or foreclose talks entirely. Traders should monitor statements from the State Department and any backchannel signals through intermediaries such as Oman or the UAE.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.