US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

The United States and Iran are locked in active hostilities, with the US just striking over 80 Iranian targets and reimposing sanctions on oil exports following assaults on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz[1]. This market prices a 14-day pause in US military action at only 5% YES, reflecting the intense volatility of the current campaign where fresh strikes were launched as recently as July 8 to keep the strait open[4].

Historical precedents for such pauses are scarce in this specific conflict cycle; the only notable break occurred in April when a fragile two-week ceasefire was established before sporadic exchanges resumed and negotiations stalled[7]. The current probability aligns with the pattern of rapid escalation, where Trump’s vow to hit “hard” and the formal notification to Congress that military operations restarted last Tuesday have cemented a trajectory of sustained combat rather than diplomatic de-escalation[7][8].

Traders must monitor official Centcom releases for strike confirmations and the status of the resumed naval blockade against Iranian ports, which remains a primary catalyst for further US action[6]. Any announcement regarding a 60-day ceasefire extension or a breakthrough in nuclear negotiations could shift the odds, though recent discussions have not yielded an immediate settlement[9]. On Polymarket, the contract trades in USDC on the Polygon network using conditional tokens, where the low liquidity at 5% implies the crowd expects the next qualifying military action to occur well before the August 2026 settlement deadline.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.