US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Market context

Polymarket’s contract is still marked at **1% YES**, which tells you the market is pricing the June framework as far from a qualifying final instrument on Polygon, even though the underlying event has already moved into formal talks and conditional tokens are live for a potential settlement. The market only resolves YES if a *written diplomatic instrument* between the US and Iran is mutually signed or formally adopted by the deadline, so a June framework or ceasefire-style memorandum is not enough on its own unless it clearly meets that definition.

The historical read-through is straightforward: the 2015 JCPOA shows that US-Iran nuclear diplomacy can produce a signed accord, but it also took long negotiation and broad multilateral buy-in before anything was binding. By contrast, the current 2026 arrangement looks closer to an interim memorandum than a final settlement, with reporting that it opened a 60-day negotiating window rather than closing the core disputes over enrichment, inspections, sanctions relief, and regional security[3][4][6]. That gap between a framework and a final signed instrument is why a sub-5% price is consistent with the market’s current interpretation.

For traders, the key catalysts are any confirmed signing, the release of a final text, and whether the parties keep the June timetable intact. Reuters reported that Iran said the draft includes an oil sanctions waiver, nuclear limits, and asset release, while AP said the agreement starts a 60-day period for further negotiations and leaves major sanctions and nuclear issues to later talks[1][4]. Watch for official US, Iranian, or Omani statements, changes to the Geneva or follow-on schedule, and any sign that hostage, maritime, or regional-security clauses are being pulled into the same instrument; if those talks slip or narrow, the probability of a qualifying final deal before 31 August 2026 stays low.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.