Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran is currently attacking commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, violating a ceasefire and prompting the United States to demand a public commitment from Tehran to end these assaults and guarantee open lanes [1][4]. On Polymarket, this contract trades at a 2% implied probability for “Yes,” reflecting the stark reality that the Iranian government has offered no such declarative policy statement to date. Traders holding conditional tokens on the Polygon network, settled in USDC, are betting against a diplomatic breakthrough given Tehran’s recent actions, including missile launches and drone deployments against tankers near the strait [5].

Historically, Iran’s stance on the Hormuz has been defined by leverage rather than restraint, often charging fees or blocking passage to assert control during negotiations with Washington [2][5]. Comparable cases show that even when Iran permits “non-hostile” transit, it explicitly excludes vessels linked to the US or Israel, making a blanket commitment not to attack ships highly inconsistent with its current hardline policy [2]. The 2% price aligns with this pattern, as Tehran has previously used the strait as a strategic weapon rather than offering unconditional guarantees to global shipping.

Key catalysts include any official announcement from the Iranian government or an authorized representative declaring a present or future policy not to attack ships [1]. Traders should monitor US diplomatic pressure, particularly senior officials’ demands for a public guarantee, and any shifts in the ceasefire terms that might force Tehran to comply [1][7]. Recent sanctions against Iranian banking entities and currency exchange houses also signal heightened US leverage, though no immediate policy shift has been announced [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.