Iran ceasefire continues through?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is still pricing this ceasefire contract at 99% YES, with USDC locked into Polygon conditional tokens implying traders think the truce is very likely to remain formally intact through the resolution date. In practical terms, that means the market is discounting any near-term escalation that would meet the contract’s trigger: a public US confirmation, or overwhelming credible reporting, of US kinetic action on Iranian soil within the required reporting window. The price also suggests little appetite for paying up for tail risk while the ceasefire remains the baseline assumption.

That reading sits alongside a familiar pattern in recent Middle East risk markets: the first market reaction to de-escalation is often a sharp repricing lower in crude and higher in equities, followed by a slow grind as traders assess whether the underlying deal has enforcement, political cover and room for ambiguity. Recent reporting has already highlighted how fragile the arrangement is, with Iranian officials warning that the ceasefire framework has been breached in part and stressing unresolved issues around Lebanon, inspections and enrichment, as noted by Fortune on 8 April. Even so, the absence of a confirmed US strike on Iranian territory has kept the contract anchored near the top of the range.

For traders, the key catalysts are procedural rather than rhetorical. Watch for official White House or Pentagon statements, any scheduled talks or mediation updates, and credible reporting on airstrikes, missile launches or covert operations that could cross the market’s definition of “kinetic military action”. Because resolution depends on timely confirmation, late-breaking headlines matter almost as much as the event itself. The on-chain structure means the market can reprice instantly, but a No outcome still requires clear evidence within the specified one-day reporting window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Iran ceasefire continues through? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.