0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

Zero ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz is not a theoretical risk but a current reality, with the waterway effectively closed amid active conflict between Iran and the US. The crowd-implied 0% probability on Polymarket for this market resolving “Yes” appears misaligned with live data showing near-zero transits and over 150 stranded vessels, including tankers and bulk carriers [2]. On-chain, this USDC contract on Polygon trades via conditional tokens, where buyers speculate on whether IMF PortWatch will officially record a daily arrival count of zero before the settlement window closes in July 2026.

Historically, the strait has never seen a full, sustained halt of commercial traffic, yet the current Iran war has driven traffic to a near-standstill for weeks, echoing the 2019–2020 tensions when attacks on commercial ships prompted shipping companies to stop sailing through the lane [3][9]. While past disruptions reduced volumes, they did not result in a confirmed zero-day in IMF PortWatch’s daily “Arrivals of Ships” data, making this the first credible test of a complete closure being officially recorded by the IMF.

Traders should monitor President Trump’s declared naval blockade against Iran and his stipulation that reopening the strait is a prerequisite for any ceasefire, as progress—or lack thereof—in peace negotiations directly dictates whether the closure persists [3]. Recent intelligence confirms daily transit counts have fallen sharply, dropping from 41 vessels on 1 July to 35 on 7 July, with traffic now near zero [10]. The key dependency is whether IMF PortWatch publishes a formal zero count; until that official data point appears, the market’s 0% pricing may reflect a lag in recognising the severity of the ongoing blockade.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.