Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the highest temperature recorded on 23 June 2026 at the Incheon International Airport Station, measured in degrees Celsius. Polymarket currently prices the YES contract for any temperature range above the historical norm at 0%, reflecting a market consensus that extreme heat is improbable for this specific date and location. This conditional token, settled in USDC on the Polygon network, treats the event as a binary outcome where the resolution hinges entirely on Wunderground’s official daily maximum.

Historical patterns frame this near-zero probability with clarity. Seoul’s average June highs typically range between 77°F and 81°F (25°C–27°C), rarely exceeding 87°F (31°C), though the capital has seen record-breaking heat in recent years, such as 35.6°C on 19 June 2026—the highest June temperature since 1958[8]. Even during South Korea’s all-time heat record of 41.0°C in Hongcheon, Seoul’s peak was 37.7°C in early July, not late June[2][7]. The 91°F (32.8°C) reading on 19 June 2026[3] suggests warmth is possible, but sustained extremes above 35°C on 23 June remain statistically anomalous.

Traders should monitor the North Pacific high-pressure system’s trajectory, which drives summer humidity and heat in Seoul[5], alongside any sudden shifts in the regional weather forecast for the Incheon area. The Korea Meteorological Administration’s daily updates and Wunderground’s real-time station data are critical dependencies for validating the settlement. While no major heatwave announcements have been issued for late June 2026, the proximity of the 19 June record suggests volatility; however, the 0% market price implies confidence that the 23 June maximum will stay within typical seasonal bounds[1][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul on June 23? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.