US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran jointly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any portion of that agreement's text enters the public domain by 1 July 2026. Polymarket currently prices YES at 90%, reflecting trader conviction that disclosure will occur within the fortnight following the signing date. The conditional token structure means positions settle against USDC on Polygon once the resolution criteria are met—either through official government publication, leaked documentation, or credible media reporting of substantive agreement language.

Historical precedent suggests asymmetric disclosure patterns in US-Iran negotiations. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action saw its full text released publicly within days of the July announcement, though earlier negotiating rounds remained confidential. Conversely, preliminary agreements and framework documents have sometimes remained restricted for months. The current 90% probability reflects trader assessment that a June 2026 agreement—announced jointly with ceremony—carries higher disclosure likelihood than confidential preliminary talks, yet acknowledges genuine uncertainty around classification decisions by either government.

Key catalysts centre on official State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry communications in the days immediately following 19 June. Traders should monitor whether either party issues press releases containing substantive excerpts, whether Congress receives briefings that leak details, and whether international media outlets obtain copies through diplomatic sources. The settlement window's tight compression—just twelve days post-signing—means disclosure must occur rapidly; delayed publication beyond early July would resolve the market to NO despite eventual public availability later in 2026.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.