Masoud Pezeshkian out by 2026?

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Market context

Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's president since August 2023, faces a 36% probability of leaving office before the end of 2026 according to Polymarket's USDC-denominated contract on Polygon. The market captures any departure—resignation, removal, or effective incapacitation—announced or executed within the settlement window. On-chain pricing reflects traders' assessment that roughly one in three scenarios involve presidential transition within roughly two years of the current date.

Iran's recent presidential history provides limited precedent for mid-term exits. Mohammad Khatami completed two full terms (1997–2005); Mahmoud Ahmadinejad served two terms (2005–2013); Hassan Rouhani completed two terms (2013–2021). No sitting president has been removed through constitutional mechanisms since the 1979 revolution, though health crises and political fracture have shaped succession timelines. Pezeshkian's predecessor Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter crash in May 2024, creating an interim presidency before Pezeshkian's election—a reminder that Iranian political stability cannot be assumed.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Supreme Leader Khamenei's health and statements regarding presidential authority, parliamentary elections scheduled for 2024 and 2026, and any escalation in regional conflict that might destabilise domestic politics. The International Atomic Energy Agency's assessments of nuclear programme compliance, particularly if triggering Western sanctions intensification, could reshape factional pressure on Pezeshkian's administration. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP on factional tensions within Iran's security apparatus suggests ongoing competition for influence that could accelerate or defer presidential transition scenarios.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.