Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket currently prices a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran by end-May 2026 at effectively zero, with negligible YES token liquidity and minimal trading volume. The contract reflects the market's assessment that formal diplomatic resolution remains extraordinarily unlikely within the 18-month window, despite occasional ceasefire negotiations in Gaza and periodic diplomatic channels through intermediaries like Qatar and Oman.

Direct Israeli-Iranian military confrontation has intensified rather than diminished since October 2023, with tit-for-tat strikes across Syria and Iraq, Iranian ballistic missile attacks in April 2024, and Israeli retaliatory strikes on Iranian air defence systems. Historical precedent offers limited optimism: the 1979 Iranian Revolution severed decades of diplomatic ties, and subsequent attempts at normalisation—including the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—collapsed without resolving underlying security concerns or proxy conflicts across the Levant. No comparable regional antagonists with comparable ideological and strategic divides have reached permanent peace agreements within comparable timeframes.

Traders monitoring this contract should track several dependencies: outcomes of Israeli-Palestinian negotiations, Iranian domestic political transitions (presidential elections scheduled for 2025), US foreign policy shifts following the November 2024 election, and any unexpected diplomatic breakthroughs brokered through Gulf states. Recent reporting from Reuters in December 2024 indicated no active high-level talks between the parties, though backchannel communications persist. The resolution hinges on explicit language confirming permanent cessation of military hostilities—temporary ceasefires or partial agreements would not qualify.

Methodology

We track Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.