Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket has this contract trading far below parity, with the crowd implying only an **11%** chance that Israel formally accepts the Board of Peace Gaza roadmap before the deadline. On Polymarket, that means buyers are pricing conditional tokens on **Polygon** and settling in **USDC** against a binary outcome: if Israel issues an acceptance by 11:59 PM ET on 7 August, the Yes side pays out; otherwise it resolves No.

That low price reflects the gap between the framework and Israel’s actual position. The roadmap ties any Israeli withdrawal to verified Hamas disarmament, while also requiring a phased handover to technocratic governance and an international security role; Reuters described the broader plan as a package of humanitarian aid, demilitarisation, civilian administration and foreign monitoring.[13] But the first public readout from Israel was rejection: after Trump unveiled the proposal, Israeli officials said it did not adequately address Hamas disarmament and that there would be no withdrawal from the Yellow Line until Gaza is demilitarised.[1]

For traders, the main catalysts are Israeli cabinet statements, any shift in Netanyahu’s office language, and whether the US or mediators publish a revised text that Israel can plausibly call an acceptance. Bloomberg reported on 3 August that fresh Israeli strikes in Gaza were casting doubt on revival efforts, while also noting Trump’s claim that the plan had momentum and that Israel had not yet accepted the fresh agreement.[10] Watch for any formal communiqué, scheduled talks with US officials, or a successor draft that consensus reporting treats as a revised version of the roadmap, because the market can still resolve Yes if Israel accepts a substantively updated plan that fits the description.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.