Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this Türkiye vs United States contract at **25% YES** today, so the market is implying roughly a one-in-four chance that the event settles in the affirmative. On Polymarket, that view is expressed through **USDC** on **Polygon**, with traders buying and selling conditional tokens that pay out only if the contract’s resolution criteria are met.

For context, a 25% price is not a neutral coin-flip read on the match itself; it is a fairly specific forecast that the settlement outcome is materially less likely than an even game. That sits below what many traders would infer from the teams’ broader profile and prior head-to-head record, where the United States has gone **2-1-1** against Türkiye, including wins in the last two meetings, according to U.S. Soccer. The scheduled World Cup meeting is a Group D fixture at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, with FIFA listing kick-off for **26 June 2026 at 02:00 UTC**, so the market is effectively trading not just sporting strength but the path to this exact fixture remaining intact through the tournament calendar.

The main catalysts are straightforward: official team announcements, injury and squad updates, and any schedule or group-stage dependency that could affect whether the match is played as listed. MLS Soccer confirmed Türkiye as the United States’ final Group D opponent and set out the group-stage timetable, which matters because this contract only resolves if the specific World Cup game is staged as described. A trader should also watch for line-up news and market moves closer to kick-off, because late changes in World Cup availability can quickly alter crowd pricing on a conditional-token market before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.