Japan vs. Sweden - Halftime Result

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Japan and Sweden faced each other in their FIFA World Cup Group F finale at AT&T Stadium in Dallas, with the match concluding in a 1–1 draw after stoppage time. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for a Japan home win at halftime is now factually incorrect, as the game ended in a draw overall and both teams advanced to the knockout stage [1][3]. Historical precedents from Group F show that matches between these sides often feature tight first halves; in this instance, Daizen Maeda scored for Japan in the first period, while Anthony Elanga equalised for Sweden in the 62nd minute, confirming the draw was not settled until after halftime [1][4].

Traders should monitor official match reports and stoppage-time declarations, as conditional tokens on Polymarket (USDC on Polygon) settle only on the official 45-minute mark plus stoppage time, not the final result [1]. Recent coverage from Al Jazeera confirms the 1–1 outcome and notes Elanga’s 62nd-minute equaliser, which directly invalidates any expectation of a Japan home win at halftime [1]. With both teams having secured knockout berths regardless of this result, no further tactical shifts or lineup announcements are expected to alter the settled outcome, and the market’s 100% YES price reflects a mispricing of the actual halftime state [3]. The settlement window ending 2026-06-25T23:00:00Z has already passed, and the on-chain result is now immutable.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Japan vs. Sweden - Halftime Result on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.