England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. The market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 9% YES, reflecting the conditional token mechanics on Polygon where traders hold USDC-backed positions until settlement. Any outcome not explicitly listed resolves to "Any Other Score," which typically captures the plurality of possible scorelines in football markets.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in major tournaments price low-probability outcomes conservatively. England and Croatia's previous World Cup meeting in 2018 ended 2–1 to France in the final, but their group-stage encounter in 2020 Euro qualifying saw a 2–1 England win. Exact-score contracts rarely exceed 15% for any single outcome in competitive international football, given the variance in team form, tactical adjustments, and in-match events. The 9% implied probability here sits within the typical range for a plausible but not heavily favoured result.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates through May 2026, as key absences reshape expected goal-scoring patterns. Fixture congestion in the preceding club season and any late managerial changes will influence pre-match analysis. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 17 June, giving traders roughly 16 hours after kick-off to assess final confirmation of the score before conditional tokens resolve on-chain.

Methodology

We track England vs. Croatia - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.