Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to meet in the Nottingham 2 tennis tournament on 15 June 2026. The match carries a 100% implied probability on Polymarket, indicating traders have priced this contract as near-certain to resolve with a winner. On-chain settlement will occur via USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens reflecting either player's advancement. The 7-day grace period extends the resolution window to 22 June, providing buffer for scheduling disruptions common in professional tennis.

Historical precedent suggests such pricing reflects fixture stability at established ATP-level events rather than absolute certainty of completion. Nottingham's grass-court tournament maintains consistent scheduling, though weather delays on outdoor courts remain a material risk. Comparable Polymarket tennis contracts at major venues typically trade between 95–99% when matches are confirmed and scheduled within standard tournament windows. The 100% reading here suggests traders view cancellation, retirement, or tie-break scenarios as negligible probabilities.

Traders should monitor official ATP communications and Nottingham tournament updates for any fixture changes, player withdrawals, or weather forecasts approaching the settlement date. Recent ATP scheduling announcements typically arrive 48–72 hours before matches. Court surface conditions and player injury reports in the week preceding 15 June will influence any late-market repricing. The early morning 5:00 AM ET start time is unusual and worth confirming against official tournament schedules, as such anomalies occasionally signal rescheduling.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.