WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this WTI close-above contract at **0% YES** today, so the market is treating a finish above the strike as effectively off the table even though front-month WTI is still trading in the mid-$70s.[8][1] For a Polymarket user, that means the position is being expressed in **USDC** and resolved through **Polygon** conditional tokens, with the key practical question being whether the official settlement print lands above the threshold before the window closes on the ICE-linked reference used by the market.[8]

That near-zero reading sits against a recent spot backdrop that has already pulled back from earlier, higher summer levels. On 5 August, reports placed WTI around **$74.63–$75.77** and Brent around **$78.44–$79.97**, after a third straight decline as traders watched easing Strait of Hormuz tensions and mixed U.S. inventory signals.[7][1] Comparable intraday levels on futures screens have still been close enough to the strike that a sharp late-session move could matter, but the current crowd price implies the market thinks the close needs an unusual upside surprise to clear the line.[2][11]

A trader watching the final hours should focus on the settlement mechanics and any late-moving drivers rather than broad oil narratives. The contract described on Robinhood references the **front-month settle price** and rolls to the next listed month two business days before the current contract’s last trading day, which is the sort of detail that can matter more than headline spot quotes on expiry day.[8] Near-term catalysts include U.S. inventory releases, any fresh Strait of Hormuz or Middle East shipping updates, and the final cash-settlement print from the relevant futures venue, because those can shift the official close even when the broader market looks steady.[1][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.