WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Polymarket is pricing this WTI close-above contract at **0% YES** today, which means the market is assigning essentially no chance that the settlement print lands above the strike once the August 4 close is fixed through the oracle process on Polygon with USDC collateral and conditional tokens. On the cash side, WTI is still trading at elevated levels relative to its 2026 average, with recent spot and futures references in the mid-70s to low-90s depending on the benchmark and timestamp, so a 0% reading is best read as the contract’s view that the threshold is now too high to clear by the close rather than a comment on oil in general.[1][4][7][12]

That pricing sits in a familiar pattern for end-of-day oil contracts: when the strike is well above the active front-month range, the implied probability can compress to zero even if the underlying benchmark is volatile. For comparison, Polymarket’s own WTI day market on August 4 showed meaningful odds only around lower thresholds, with the contract at “Above $77.49” effectively unpriced but “Above $80.49” still showing a substantial chance earlier in the session, which underlines how quickly these binaries can flatten once the strike moves out of reach.[7] The front-month August WTI contract was also quoted near $74.40 on one live feed and around $82.67 on a WSJ snapshot from late July, illustrating how much the relevant baseline can vary by source, timestamp, and contract month.[9][12]

For traders, the main catalysts are the regular US oil inventory and product-flow releases, any OPEC+ commentary, and intraday moves in the front-month WTI contract used by the market’s settlement logic. News flow also matters because geopolitics and refinery disruption headlines can move oil sharply within hours; recent commentary from J.P. Morgan still points to a softer broader 2026 oil outlook even after a recent spike, which frames why a late-session surge would need a fresh catalyst rather than simple carry-through.[20]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.