Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s private-market valuation must reach the listed threshold by 31 December 2026 to trigger a “Yes” settlement, with Nasdaq Private Market’s NPM Price serving as the sole resolution data. On Polymarket today, the contract trades at 12% for YES, implying the market sees a steep climb from the current $1.14T NPM mark as unlikely before year-end [2]. Traders settle in USDC on Polygon using conditional tokens, where buying YES tokens locks capital that converts to full USDC only if the valuation threshold is hit.

Historical precedent suggests such rapid private-market re-pricing is rare outside of major funding rounds. Anthropic jumped from $650bn in early May to $992bn by late May, then to $1.14T in July, yet each step required explicit capital events [4][6]. The 12% probability aligns with the difficulty of adding hundreds of billions without a new round; even the $2.0T level, which sits at 43% on Polymarket, is viewed as a harder step-up than the current $1.25T–$1.5T range [2][5].

Key catalysts include the timing of Anthropic’s next funding round and any updates to its S-1 filing, which was submitted confidentially on 1 June 2026 targeting a $965bn listing [10]. Traders should monitor Nasdaq Private Market’s daily NPM updates at 1:00 PM ET, as only trading-day prints count for settlement [1]. A $65bn Series H-1 round already pushed valuation to $965bn, so a comparable or larger round before December would be the primary driver to breach higher thresholds [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.