Will Anthropic’s valuation hit 2027 by December 31?

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Market context

Polymarket has this contract at about 12% YES, with traders paying in USDC on Polygon for conditional tokens that only settle if Nasdaq Private Market’s reported price for Anthropic reaches the listed threshold on any trading day by 31 December 2026. The market is therefore pricing a low but non-trivial chance that a single daily NPM print, rather than a headline fundraising target, clears the bar before year-end. Because NPM updates once a day and only for business dates, the path to resolution depends on published private-market marks, not intraday sentiment.

That 12% sits well below the levels implied by Anthropic’s latest reported financing steps, which have already pushed its valuation to $380 billion in February 2026, after a $30 billion Series G, according to Anthropic. It is also far below the valuation being discussed in current fundraising chatter: Sacra says Anthropic is in early talks to raise at least $30 billion at a pre-money valuation above $900 billion, while Bloomberg reported on 13 May that the company was seeking fresh financing at more than $900 billion. For context, the market has to clear a higher threshold than the last round, so traders are effectively betting on an additional re-rate within months, not just another large raise.

What matters next is whether those talks turn into signed terms, and whether any resulting NPM mark lands on a date before 31 December. Watch for a formal funding announcement, the size and timing of the round, and any update to secondary pricing or employee tender activity that could feed into NPM’s published valuation. The settlement window also leaves some room for delayed reporting: if NPM has not published all relevant business dates by 1 January 2027, the market can stay open until 4 January 2027 at 11:59 pm ET.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.