S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The S&P 500 will close on 13 July 2026 at some price level; this market asks whether SPY—the exchange-traded fund tracking that index—will finish above a specific strike price on that date. Polymarket currently prices YES at 0%, suggesting the crowd views the threshold as either unreachably high or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful bid. On-chain settlement will occur via USDC on Polygon, with conditional tokens resolving based on official closing data from the underlying index.

Historical volatility in July has rarely produced single-day moves exceeding 3–4% for the broad market, though individual catalyst events—earnings surprises, Federal Reserve communications, or geopolitical shocks—have occasionally driven sharper swings. The 0% probability typically reflects either an implausibly distant strike price or thin order books; comparable markets on Polymarket for index closes show that even extreme price targets attract some speculative interest unless they sit multiple standard deviations away from consensus forecasts.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Federal Reserve's policy stance and any scheduled economic data releases in early July 2026, including employment reports or inflation prints that could shift equity positioning. Corporate earnings season typically concludes by mid-July, though guidance revisions and sector rotation can persist. Currency movements, particularly USD strength, and international equity performance will also influence SPY's trajectory. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on 13 July, giving traders until New York market close to adjust positions based on intraday momentum.

Methodology

We track S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.