Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket is currently pricing **Uruguay vs Cabo Verde exact score** at **6% YES**, which implies the market is assigning only a small chance that the final 90-minute result lands on the specific listed scoreline rather than an alternative outcome in the conditional-token contract on Polygon settled in USDC. The match is a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with FIFA listing kick-off for 22:00 UTC on 21 June and ESPN showing the live result as Uruguay 1-0 Cabo Verde at full time in the reported match feed.[3][1][2]

That low probability fits the usual behaviour of exact-score markets, where even a clear favourite can still miss the target if the game finishes one goal off, or if the listed score is not the exact one used by the contract. Uruguay entered the match as the stronger side in bookmaker-style pricing, with ESPN showing Uruguay around -225 on the moneyline and a draw at +320, while head-to-head data is limited because these sides have not built a long recent rivalry.[1][7] In practice, exact-score contracts tend to cluster around low single-digit probabilities because they depend on a very narrow outcome band, not just a win or loss.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or squad news, and whether FIFA’s official match feed confirms the final score before the settlement window closes on 21 June 2026 at 22:00 UTC.[3] The Polymarket resolution mechanics matter here too: the contract settles from the regulation-time result only, with extra time and penalties excluded, so a late equaliser or stoppage-time goal can completely change the payout even if the eventual winner is obvious.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.