Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The FIFA World Cup Group D clash between Türkiye and the United States kicks off in Los Angeles on Thursday, 25 June 2026 at 10:00 PM ET, with the on-chain market for an exact 2-1 Türkiye victory currently priced at 5% on Polymarket. Traders using USDC on the Polygon network see this conditional token reflecting a sharp outlier, as bookmakers and algorithmic models overwhelmingly favour a United States win or a draw, with the 2-1 Türkiye scoreline appearing as a long-shot at 11/1 in traditional betting markets[1].

Historical precedents for this fixture suggest a pattern of both teams scoring, with five previous encounters all featuring goals at both ends, yet the specific 2-1 Türkiye result remains an outsider despite four of the last five head-to-head matches ending with that exact scoreline[1][2]. While the United States are viewed as slight favourites due to superior squad quality and attacking potential, the draw commands strong market interest, and the 2-1 Türkiye outcome sits at the fringes of probability compared to the projected 1-2 USA win favoured by most analysts[2][3].

Key catalysts for traders include potential lineup changes, as the USA may alter their roster with players like Tyler Adams and Folarin Balogun facing selection uncertainty, and the impact of yellow-card accumulations on key defenders[6]. The match total of 2.5 goals is heavily favoured for the over at -140, suggesting a high-scoring affair that could align with the 2-1 scenario if Türkiye capitalises on home advantage in Los Angeles, though the 5% price implies the market views this as a low-probability event[4][5]. Traders should monitor pre-match announcements for any confirmed squad shifts that could shift the on-chain probability before the settlement window closes on 26 June 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.