Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Tunisia and the Netherlands will meet in Kansas City for their final Group F match at the FIFA World Cup, with the market currently pricing an exact score outcome at 9% YES. This contract trades on Polymarket using USDC on the Polygon network, where conditional tokens lock the settlement to the 90-minute result, excluding extra time and shoot-outs. The on-chain mechanics ensure that only the final score after regulation and stoppage time determines resolution, with “Any Other Score” absorbing all unlisted outcomes.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 10% unless one side is a dominant favourite facing a defensively frail opponent; the Netherlands’ 1-1-0 group record and Tunisia’s two heavy losses (5-1 to Sweden, 4-0 to Japan) suggest a mismatch, yet the 9% price implies uncertainty about the precise margin. Comparable cases, such as the 2014 Netherlands vs Chile 2-1 or 2010 Netherlands vs Denmark 2-0, show that even strong teams often concede, making exact scores volatile and typically underpriced relative to their true probability.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and tactical announcements, particularly whether the Netherlands deploy a high press that could lead to early goals or if Tunisia’s coach Hervé Renard opts for a defensive block to limit the scoreline. Recent coverage from ESPN highlights Tunisia’s defensive struggles and the Dutch aim to top the group, which may influence betting flows as the settlement window closes at 23:00 UTC on 25 June. Any delay in kick-off or weather-related postponement will keep the contract open until completion, per the on-chain rules.

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Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Kalshi UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.