Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Polymarket has this contract at **3% YES** today, which means the market is pricing only a small chance that Tunisia vs Japan lands on one of the listed exact-score outcomes. On-chain, that view is expressed through USDC-backed positions on Polygon and settles via conditional tokens once the match is complete, with only the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time counting; extra time and penalties do not matter for resolution.

Historically, the matchup has leaned Japan’s way: across four recorded meetings, Japan have won three and Tunisia one, and the most recent encounter ended 2-0 to Japan in October 2023.[1][8] Recent pre-match pricing on mainstream football markets also points to Japan as the stronger side, with ESPN listing Japan as favourites and Tunisia as clear underdogs, while Reuters noted Japan drew 2-2 with the Netherlands in their opener and Tunisia lost 5-1 to Sweden ahead of this fixture.[2][4] For an exact-score market, that combination usually keeps probability concentrated in a few Japan-win scorelines, with “Any Other Score” absorbing the rest.

A trader should watch for late team news, starting line-ups, and any tournament scheduling changes because those can materially affect both the score distribution and whether a match is completed within the settlement window. Reuters reported this fixture as the 1,000th World Cup match, so it is being tracked closely and should have extensive pre-match coverage, but the contract still resolves strictly on the final score at full time, not on narrative significance or progression stakes.[4] If the game is postponed, the market stays open until played; if it is cancelled with no make-up, the resolution rules become decisive for holders.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Tunisia vs. Japan - Exact Score across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Kalshi UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Kalshi UK?

Zero. Kalshi UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Kalshi UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.