Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy stance over the next three months hinges on three scheduled FOMC meetings: mid-March, late April, and mid-June 2026. Polymarket currently prices this contract at 0% YES, reflecting trader conviction that no rate cut will occur across this window. The mechanics here are straightforward—a qualifying cut means the upper bound of the target federal funds rate falls below its current level at any of these three meetings. On-chain settlement via conditional tokens on Polygon will resolve based on the FOMC's official announcement of the new target range, with USDC payouts flowing to holders of the YES or NO token accordingly.

Historical precedent suggests sustained rate-hold periods are the norm when inflation remains sticky. Between 2022 and 2024, the Fed maintained rates through multiple consecutive meetings before shifting policy. The current 0% probability reflects market expectations that economic data—particularly inflation metrics and labour market strength—will not deteriorate enough to justify a cut within this compressed six-month window. Traders pricing this contract are essentially betting the Fed remains in hold mode, a positioning consistent with recent Fed communications emphasising data dependency rather than pre-committed easing.

The critical catalyst is the Consumer Price Index release scheduled for mid-February, which will frame expectations heading into the March meeting. Employment reports in February and May, alongside PCE inflation data in April, will shape the narrative around whether rate cuts become plausible. Any significant deterioration in labour market conditions or a sharp drop in core inflation could shift probabilities materially, though current market pricing suggests traders view such scenarios as unlikely over this timeframe.

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.