Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady across its next three meetings in April, June, and July 2026, with the current crowd-implied probability of a rate cut sitting at 0%. This reflects the prevailing market view that the upper bound of the target federal funds rate, currently 3.50%–3.75%, will not fall below this level during the settlement window ending in July 2026.

Historically, the Fed has maintained rates when inflation remains sticky, as seen in late 2025 and early 2026, before cutting only when economic weakness becomes pronounced. The June 2026 decision, where Chairman Kevin Warsh’s committee unanimously held rates at 3.50%–3.75% and removed language suggesting future cuts, signals a shift toward potential hikes rather than reductions [1]. The Fed’s dot plot now projects a median rate of 3.8% by end-2026, up from 3.4% in March, implying at least one hike is likely [1].

Traders should monitor the April 28–29, June 16–17, and July 28–29 FOMC statements, particularly any changes to the inflation outlook or employment data. Recent commentary from Warsh and the Fed’s revised projections suggest a hike could occur by October, making a cut in the next three meetings improbable [1]. On-chain, Polymarket prices this contract using USDC on Polygon, where conditional tokens resolve based on the official FOMC decision, with no room for speculation on abstract outcomes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Fed decisions (Apr-Jul) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Kalshi UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.