Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Kalshi UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 73% |
| Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 57% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 56% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 55% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 52% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Winner | 38% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 26% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 23% |
| Match Winner | 13% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Team Secret and T1 face off in a best-of-three Valorant match within VCT Pacific Group Omega, scheduled for 25 July at 07:00 ET. The Polymarket contract currently prices Team Secret's victory at 33 cents on the dollar, implying a one-in-three chance they take the series. Settlement occurs at 17:00 UTC the same day, with conditional tokens on Polygon reflecting either outcome or resolving to parity if the match doesn't conclude within seven days.
T1 enters as the favoured side, a positioning rooted in their sustained dominance across VCT Pacific competitions. The South Korean organisation has consistently fielded rosters capable of competing at the highest level, whilst Team Secret—despite fielding competitive talent—has faced inconsistency in regional play. Historical matchups between these teams show T1 winning the majority of encounters, though individual map pools and meta shifts can create volatility in any given series. The 67-33 split reflected in current USDC pricing aligns with T1's track record rather than suggesting Team Secret are underdogs in an upset sense.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute lineup changes in the 48 hours before match time, as substitutions have occasionally altered competitive balance in Pacific fixtures. VCT scheduling announcements and official Riot Games communications regarding format adjustments remain critical; delays beyond the seven-day window would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent VCT Pacific matches have proceeded on schedule, though technical issues or player unavailability have occasionally forced postponements. The match's position within the broader Group Omega standings may also influence team preparation intensity, particularly if either side has already secured or been eliminated from advancement.
Methodology
We track Valorant: Team Secret vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Kalshi UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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