Valorant: JD Gaming vs TYLOO (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha

Platform comparison

Market context

JD Gaming and TYLOO are set to face off in a Best-of-3 Valorant match for the VCT China Stage 2 Group Alpha, scheduled to begin at 7:00 AM ET on 10 July. On Polymarket today, the contract for JD Gaming to win is priced at 0% YES, reflecting a near-total market consensus that JD Gaming will not secure the victory, while TYLOO holds a 58% implied probability of winning the match[4].

Historical head-to-head data shows JD Gaming has won four of seven prior encounters against TYLOO (57%), yet the most recent BO3 in August 2025 saw TYLOO triumph 2-1, overturning JDG’s earlier dominance in that specific series[1][2][5]. This pattern mirrors other esports upsets where a team with a lower overall win rate against a rival still prevails in a critical match, suggesting the 0% price may be overly reactive to recent form rather than the full historical context.

Traders should monitor the official match start confirmation and any live schedule updates posted by TYLOO on X, as delays or cancellations could trigger the market’s 50-50 settlement clause if no winner is determined within seven days[3][10]. The match is patch 12.05, and any pre-match roster changes or technical issues reported by the VCT China organisers could shift conditional token valuations on Polygon, where USDC is used for settlement[8]. Recent coverage on GosuGamers confirms the live score feed will activate at the scheduled time, making real-time verification essential for on-chain positioning[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Kalshi UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.