LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

TLN Pirates and Karmine Corp Blue are due to meet in an LFL play-offs best-of-three, but Polymarket is currently pricing the contract at 0% YES, implying the market expects no path to a settled TLN win before expiry. Because the share settles through conditional tokens on Polygon and USDC, the practical question is not who is stronger on stage, but whether the match is actually completed with a winner before the 22:00 UTC window closes. At a zero bid, any confirmed start, finish, or cancellation update can matter more than the pre-match favourite narrative.

The closest reading comes from the teams’ prior LFL meeting this spring, where TLN Pirates won 1–0 in the regular season according to Sheep Esports, while Liquipedia lists their spring play-off series as a separate event result page. Karmine Corp Blue’s wider tournament record on Leaguepedia suggests they have remained active through the split, but for a binary contract the useful comparison is how often LFL fixtures are delayed, rescheduled, or carried over. In practice, a 0% market often reflects either stale pricing, a race against settlement, or uncertainty around whether a live series will be completed in time rather than a firm view on competitive strength.

The main catalysts are official broadcast start times, any venue or server delay, and whether the upper-bracket semi is played at all before the settlement cut-off. Sheep Esports and Sofascore both list the fixture around 20 May, but traders should watch for LFL announcements if the series slips, as a postponement beyond seven days would push the contract to 50-50 under the rules. If the match begins but is unfinished, the outcome still depends on the event’s official adjudication, so live updates from the league and the team pages are the key inputs rather than pre-game previews.

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Methodology

We track LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.